Morning Review of the Day Before (Sept. 15, 2016)

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Random Fact: September is the National Bourbon Heritage Month (and it is also the Mid-Autumn Festival across Chinese communities) Something to quench your thirst or addiction: (http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/09/15/how-to-celebrate-national-bourbon-heritage-month.html)  Maybe down some mooncakes with bourbon (http://qz.com/781802/the-fruitcake-of-the-east-hong-kong-will-throw-out-a-million-mooncakes-this-mid-autumn-festival/)

Morning Review of the Day Before (aka What Caught My Eye)

  1. Macro WTF: Paul Romer – NYU & Chief Economist at WB: The Trouble With Macroeconomics (https://paulromer.net/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/WP-Trouble.pdf)
    • Highlight: This Romer critique is super wonky so I will attempt ‘brevity’. In short, macroeconomists work in groups and their egos forbid them from admitting glaring errors especially when their star leaders fail after initial successes. With popular macroeconomic models, the biggest issue is “facts with unknown truth value (FWUTV)” or commonly known as “bullshit”.
      • More reading: In order to justify a model and its time series data as consistent facts, uncertain or unknown data is assumed or deduced using past probabilities of constraints and parameters, or willed away all together. This leads to bullshit data results because empirical and experimental attempts at the unknown data reveals different or incomplete conclusions. The models are consistent because of the overusage of historical parameters undergoing a mathematically sound process. The math is correct but the results do not reflect reality unless the model is a perfect image of reality. However, macroeconomic models are defended because of a near cult like desire to defend ones ego and “friend” instead of the discipline leading to real world consequences.
  2. Chinese Diaspora: EastAsia Forum: The Chinese diaspora’s role in the rise of China (http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2016/09/14/the-chinese-diasporas-role-in-the-rise-of-china/)
    • Highlight: “The changing nature of overseas Chinese communities and their relationship to China is a subject that deserves further exploration, not least due to the growing political attention it is attracting.”
  3. Nocturnal Clowns!?: BBC – Creepy nocturnal clown sightings leave US police baffled (http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-37365762)
    • Highlight: The title says it all, and holy jeebus what’s happening in those woods. Where are the clowns coming from!? — “Nocturnal clowns have been spotted in at least six states, most recently in Georgia where two young boys ran in fear of their lives while waiting for the morning school bus.”
  4. RMB again Bloomberg -China’s Yuan Faces a Rocky Road to Becoming a Truly Global Currency (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-09-14/china-s-redback-awaits-pride-of-place-with-dollar-rome-s-aureus)
    • Highlight: This is part of the goal since it makes economic statecraft so much easier. — “Such risks run both ways. If the yuan, also known as the renminbi, were to become a major reserve currency it could leave the world’s financial system even more vulnerable to an economic shock that’s made in China. That would add to trade linkages that already make regional neighbors vulnerable to Chinese cyclical swings and supply-chain changes.”
      • More reading: The biggest gainer is Eswar Prasad’s book being mentioned, “Gaining Currency. The Rise of the Renminbi.”
  5. Wonky Political Uncertainty University of Chicago – Elections, Policymaking, and Economic Uncertainty (https://bfi.uchicago.edu/events/elections-policymaking-and-economic-uncertainty)
    • Highlight: Again, I’ll attempt brevity. The event had a lot of high profile speakers and papers (when isn’t there). Papers presented include: political polarity  occurs more because of trade shocks to employment, political uncertainty drives economic policy uncertainty, and big data experiments find political uncertainties reflected in business jargon directly impact company business decisions and bottom line. It’s not the University of Chicago if speakers didn’t advocate for reduction of entitlements, constraint and reduce government, and double if not triple check regulatory cost-benefits.

 

Notes: If there are suggestions, please let me know by reply, email, or twitter. 

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